Pollster: Bloomberg Is ‘Catalyst’ of American Politics

January 9, 2008

Mayor Bloomberg’s promotion of a centrist government that would transcend party politics is driving a new approach to American politics, and efforts to downplay the viability of his possible presidential campaign are premature, a political strategist and pollster who has worked for Mr. Bloomberg and President Clinton is saying.

Douglas Schoen said the argument that Senator Obama’s victory in the Iowa caucuses and strong showing in the New Hampshire primary closes the door on a presidential campaign by an independent Mr. Bloomberg is shortsighted.

The idea that Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign may be a nonstarter because of Mr. Obama’s surge is flawed because “a week and a half ago you would have had a completely different” take on the race, he said, a reference to the prevailing wisdom in some political circles that Senator Clinton was the inevitable Democratic nominee prior to the Iowa caucuses.

Mr. Schoen said Mr. Obama’s surge and an anticipated comeback by Senator McCain, a Republican, is due in part to the candidates’ adoption of Mr. Bloomberg’s message of bipartisan cooperation.

Mr. Bloomberg “is really the catalyst of a large movement in American politics,” he said. The mayor is “driving broader trends in American politics today, and I think he is a central actor in the process, if not the central actor.” Mr. Schoen, the author of “Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System,” which is due out from Random House next month, said he thinks there is “a very real chance” Mr. Bloomberg will run for president. He argues in his book that a third-party candidate could take the White House this year. Mr. Schoen has said he has no expectation of working for Mr. Bloomberg, should he launch a campaign.

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